With national races heating up, Minnesota voters can’t forget the key races going on in their home state. Minnesota Republicans in the 2010 elections won a majority in the state legislature for the first time, ever. Now, the democrats are determined to take it back.

The Republican Party has been unable to pursue most of its legislative agenda because of the veto power of Democratic governor Mark Dayton. Still, the party has made waves during its two years in office. It has put two major issues– gay marriage and voter ID– to voters as  possible constitutional amendments. Disagreement between the party and Dayton caused the two-week government shutdown in Summer of 2011, which resulted in a surprise budget surplus. The party was also rocked by the resignation of its house leader, Amy Koch, after an extramarital affair.

So whose congress will this be? It’s hard to tell, especially since the state was redistricted several months ago. An analysis of voting patterns by MinnPost suggests that the DFL has an advantage in nine of the twelve most important senate seats, as well as thirteen of sixteen key house seats. However, most of those key seats are currently held by the GOP, who have the hard-to-beat advantage of incumbency.

The Democrats also have behind them the additional support from a presidential election year and the momentum from popular governor Mark Dayton.

But the most important factor, says politically active US History Department Chair Andrea Sachs, is the current legislative gridlock. “There’s a really high level of dissatisfaction with state legislators of both parties, which makes things easier for challengers. A lot of people have this sense that those bums in St. Paul just aren’t getting anything done.”

Sachs estimates that one, but not both, of the houses of the state legislature will go to the Democrats. If that happens, she says, the next question will be, “are the people who pass legislation going to be able to come together? Is compromise going to be a dirty word?”

In St. Paul, Republicans have little chance of gaining seats from Democrats. But Independent candidate Scott Larson, running for senate in District 64, which contains St. Paul Academy, has a surprising amount of support. Larson, a firm anti-partisan who refuses to accept any endorsements, holds a real chance at blocking Dick Cohen’s re-election. Most of Larson’s positions are ambiguous, but he opposes the two constitutional amendments on the ballot this fall.