Following the defeat of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and disturbing losses in both houses of Congress, political wonks are forecasting major change in the GOP’s ranks. But no matter what happens before the next Congressional elections in 2014, Republicans can rest assured that their Grand Old Party will still be there. Apart from a few questions of image, conservatives have no reason to change their stances.
President Obama won reelection on a tide of young voters, minorities, and women. Pundits said that the economy would decide this election. It didn’t. Obama won because he addressed specific issues to specific groups.
Obama won an estimated 75% of Hispanic votes nationally in this year’s election. A strongly Catholic, entrepreneurial, and family-oriented demographic, Hispanics overwhelmingly cast their votes for the incumbent despite Republicans’ strength in these areas. The defining issue for them was immigration. Although Obama’s administration has deported record numbers of undocumented immigrants, and visibly failed to deliver on his promised “comprehensive immigration reform,” the Republicans managed to be even more off-putting, vying to be seen as the toughest on illegal immigration during their primary.
Democrats’ monopoly on the Hispanic vote simply isn’t sustainable. Immigration aside, Hispanics are generally socially conservative. Republicans simply cannot afford to alienate the fastest-growing group in America. As commentators such as Charles Krauthammer have noted, the way forward for the Republicans is to seek to secure the border, without prioritizing deportation. High-profile Hispanic conservatives like Florida Senator Marco Rubio and New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez will also help their community feel welcomed by the Republican Party.
Obama also won over a plurality of women, netting 55% of their votes. One key factor in this loss was the misconstrued Republican stand on birth control. Republican opposition to the Obamacare mandate that Catholic institutions provide contraception coverage to their employees led to a common misconception that Republicans opposed birth control in all situations. Also problematic were the two pro-life Republican senatorial candidates that made controversial comments about abortion in instances of rape. These two issues garnered negative attention from young, unmarried women, giving Obama a vast majority of their votes.
Republicans’ shortcomings in the eyes of women necessitate less of a policy change than an educational campaign. They must set the record straight– no high-profile Republican politician, from Rick Santorum to Richard Mourdock, supports a ban on birth control. Religious freedom of conscience is another matter entirely from womens’ rights.
Though Republicans’ hold on women’s votes is not as strong as it could be, one aspect of the right’s so-called “war on women” has not held Republicans back in the least. Opposition to abortion is a key tenant of the conservative platform, and one that does not alienate women. A 2012 Gallup poll finds that 46% of women identify as “pro-life” while only 42% call themselves “pro-choice.”
The Republican Party doesn’t need to change much. Rather, it must re-brand itself. An electorate that sees the GOP as a modern, viable alternative will be far more receptive to their ideas. First and foremost, they must establish that they serve every American, rich, poor, or middle class, regardless of gender or ethnicity. Democrats held on to the Senate and the presidency by defining Republicans as servants of the wealthy. As comically false as this idea is, it almost single-handedly destroyed Romney’s bid for the White House. Voters must understand that Republicans and Democrats seek the same end- a stronger, more prosperous nation.
Mitt Romney won majorities among men, middle-class voters, and whites. These demographics are significant because they represent large groups without a defining social issue. Mitt Romney may have lost on niche issues, but his victories in majority groups show that he won on more major fronts, including the economy and foreign policy. This is not to say that a white, middle-class male’s ballot is the slightest bit more important than a single Hispanic woman’s. But Romney’s success with the bread and butter of America shows that Republicans have stayed relevant on the main issues. They just have to improve their image to make a full comeback.
